Secure IBD: COVID-19 Risk Calculator

Enter your information and click Calculate Risk.


        

        

          


        


        


        

Introduction:

This calculator is intended for use by physicians caring for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) to calculate the risk of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, or death in IBD patients with COVID-19, based on data from the SECURE-IBD (Surveillance Epidemiology of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion) registry.

To use this tool, please enter patient information in the panel on the left and click calculate. The tool will then depict the risk of severe COVID-19, defined as having any or all of the following:

Hospitalization+ = The probability of hospitalization, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or death as a result of COVID-19.

ICU+ = The probability of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or death as a result of COVID-19.

Death = The probability of death as a result of COVID-19.

This is not medical advice.

The information provided by this calculator is not medical advice. This tool is based on associations of conditions and medications with poor outcomes resulting from COVID-19; these associations are not necessarily causal. This tool should be used by physicians as a guide to COVID-19 prognosis and should not be used to answer "what-if" questions by changing parameters for patient characteristics such as age, weight, medications, etc.

Data Storage:

This calculator does not store the information you enter.


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Study Data:

The data used to create this calculator came from the SECURE-IBD registry ( https://covidibd.org ), "an international, pediatric and adult database to monitor and report on outcomes of COVID-19 occurring in IBD patients."

Data collection began March 13th, 2020 and this version of the calculator was based on data collected through October 20th, 2020. Cases are reported to the SECURE-IBD database by clinicians. More than 2,500 cases from over 60 countries had been reported at this time. The data contains fewer submissions from patients in low- and middle-income countries; for more descriptive details about the database, consult the current data summary available at the registry website ( https://covidibd.org/current-data ).

In the overall population included in this analysis, the hospitalization rate was 25.3%, the ICU rate was 6.8%, and death rate was 2.9%.

Understanding the Confidence Intervals:

Confidence intervals convey uncertainty about our estimated probabilities. They assume that the probability of each COVID-19 related outcome is fixed but unknowable. If we were to repeat data collection from the same population and recalculate the 90% confidence interval based on the newly collected data, we would expect that nine out of ten of these confidence intervals would contain the true risk for each patient.


Physicians with any questions about this tool can feel free to contact us at: ibd-covid-risk@office.unc.edu.

For more information about this project, please visit the SECURE-IBD website ( https://covidibd.org ). If you are an IBD patient who contracted COVID-19, please encourage your physician to contribute to the registry at this website. We do not take direct patient submission of data.